How to win bets with the over 2.5 goals strategy
So many people that bet on football default to match result bets be it as a single bet or grouped into an accumulator. With the over 2.5 goals strategy, you might just find more enjoyment and more profit from your bets.
What is the over 2.5 goals strategy?
An over 2.5 goals bet is where you predict a fixture will have three goals or more. You can’t score half a goal after all.
With these bets, you don’t care what team wins, what players score or even what team scores. It’s all about seeing that net bulge.
The strategy element comes into play with how you predict what games will involve that many goals. It takes some effort but much less than that of predicting what team will win.
What research do I need to do?
The most obvious thing to do with the over 2.5 goals strategy is to work out how many goals teams are seeing in their games. How do we do this? Well, there are two ways you can shape this analysis.
Firstly, take a longer term view. At the moment, the season is in it’s infancy so look to last season. Take the game you’re considering betting on and review the two teams goals for and against columns for last season. If you add those numbers together and divide by the number of games, you’ll get your average goals per game.
An example – Man United Vs Chelsea
This game takes place today. Last season their statistics are as follows:
Goals for 66 + goals against 36 = 102
Divide that by 38 games = 2.7
Goals for 69 + goals against 54 = 123
Divide that by 38 games = 3.2
Based on longer term averages, the prospect of over 2.5 goals looks promising.
What about shorter term?
Taking a long term view is sensible but you want to look at more recent form too.
As the season is only a few games in, you can just use the ‘as is’ goals columns. As the season progresses, sites like transfermarkt.co.uk offer flexible tables where you can set what period you wish to look at. This is very useful.
So our example continues…
So far this season, Man United have played four games. They’ve scored nine and conceded 12. That’s an average goals per game of 5.3.
Looks good, doesn’t it? How much of that is down to their 6-1 defeat against Tottenham? If your sample contains ‘freak’ results (data outliers) then strip them out. Now, United have played three games with eight goals for and six against. The good news is, that’s still 4.7 goals per game.
Chelsea meanwhile have played five matches scoring 13 and conceding nine. That’s 4.4 goals per game. The match itself is a hard one to call as to who wins. The prospect of over 2.5 goals looks good though.
Is there any other statistics to consider?
The only other hard statistics to consider in the over 2.5 goals strategy is around head to head information.
We know Chelsea and Man United have plenty of goals in their games in general terms. What about against each other? Check out their previous fixtures. In the last 10 meetings there have been 26 goals shared with five games being over 2.5 goals.
What about subjective input?
We’ve been talking in cold hard stats up to now. That’s not the only thing that defines a successful bet though. Sometimes the most important information comes in the shape of your knowledge. In these scenarios you’re predominantly talking about team selections.
Why does that matter? Let’s stick with our example. If Manchester United announce their team and Bruno Fernandes is not in it then they’ve lost something from their attack because he’s had five goal involvements in their four league games so far this season.
On the flip side, imagine if Chelsea name Kepa in goal. He makes their defence weaker. The evidence for this is that he’s made three errors leading to goals this Premier League season alone. He’s only played three league games.
There you have it, your over 2.5 goals strategy explained.