How to win bets with the over 2.5 goals strategy
So many people that bet on football default to match result bets be it as a single bet or grouped into an accumulator. With the over 2.5 goals strategy, you might just find more enjoyment and more profit from your bets.
Our over 2.5 goals tip of the day
For our over 2.5 goals strategy, keep reading. If you’re just checking in for our daily over 2.5 goals tip then here you are:
Kaiserslautern vs Dresden, Over 2.5 @ 19/20 (1.95)
Kaiserslautern have gone over the 2.5 mark in each of their last six home games. Dresden have gone north of that marker in four of their last five away games. Three of the last five head to heads have gone over 2.5 too with their last clash seeing seven goals.
Our preferred bookmaker is STSBet; odds were correct at the time of publication.
What is the over 2.5 goals strategy?
An over 2.5 goals bet is where you predict a fixture will have three goals or more. You can’t score half a goal after all.
With these bets, you don’t care what team wins, what players score or even what team scores. It’s all about seeing that net bulge.
The strategy element comes into play with how you predict what games will involve that many goals. It takes some effort but much less than that of predicting what team will win.
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What research do I need to do?
The most obvious thing to do with the over 2.5 goals strategy is to work out how many goals teams are seeing in their games. How do we do this? Well, there are two ways you can shape this analysis.
Firstly, take a longer term view. At the moment, the season is in it’s infancy so look to last season. Take the game you’re considering betting on and review the two teams goals for and against columns for last season. If you add those numbers together and divide by the number of games, you’ll get your average goals per game.
An example – Man United Vs Chelsea
This game takes place today. Last season their statistics are as follows:
Goals for 66 + goals against 36 = 102
Divide that by 38 games = 2.7
Goals for 69 + goals against 54 = 123
Divide that by 38 games = 3.2
Based on longer term averages, the prospect of over 2.5 goals looks promising.
What about shorter term?
Taking a long term view is sensible but you want to look at more recent form too.
As the season is only a few games in, you can just use the ‘as is’ goals columns. As the season progresses, sites like transfermarkt.co.uk offer flexible tables where you can set what period you wish to look at. This is very useful. In addition to that, you can use sites like Flashscore.co.uk. On Flashscore you can look at specific leagues and view special over/under league tables where the teams can be ranked on their average goals per game; you lose some of the bespoke control transfermarkt offers with regards to controlling time periods but you can see a ‘last five’ where over and under are represented by green (over) or red (under) marks.
So our example continues…
So far this season, Man United have played four games. They’ve scored nine and conceded 12. That’s an average goals per game of 5.3.
Looks good, doesn’t it? How much of that is down to their 6-1 defeat against Tottenham? If your sample contains ‘freak’ results (data outliers) then strip them out. Now, United have played three games with eight goals for and six against. The good news is, that’s still 4.7 goals per game.
Chelsea meanwhile have played five matches scoring 13 and conceding nine. That’s 4.4 goals per game. The match itself is a hard one to call as to who wins. The prospect of over 2.5 goals looks good though.
Are there any other statistics to consider?
The only other hard statistics to consider in the over 2.5 goals strategy is around head to head information.
We know Chelsea and Man United have plenty of goals in their games in general terms. What about against each other? Check out their previous fixtures. In the last 10 meetings there have been 26 goals shared with five games being over 2.5 goals.
What about subjective input?
We’ve been talking in cold hard stats up to now. That’s not the only thing that defines a successful bet though. Sometimes the most important information comes in the shape of your knowledge. In these scenarios you’re predominantly talking about team selections.
Why does that matter? Let’s stick with our example. If Manchester United announce their team and Bruno Fernandes is not in it then they’ve lost something from their attack because he’s had five goal involvements in their four league games so far this season.
On the flip side, imagine if Chelsea name Kepa in goal. He makes their defence weaker. The evidence for this is that he’s made three errors leading to goals this Premier League season alone. He’s only played three league games.
There you have it, your over 2.5 goals strategy explained.
Ready to bet?
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Over 2.5 goals tip history:
19/05/22 – Luzern vs Young Boys, Over 2.5 @ 1/2 (1.50) WINNER
18/05/22 – Helsingor vs Lyngby, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER
17/05/22 – Haka vs SJK, Over 2.5 @ 23/20 (2.15) LOSER
16/05/22 – Silkeborg vs Midtjylland, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER
15/05/22 – Swindon vs Port Vale, Over 2.5 @ 21/20 (2.05) WINNER
14/05/22 – Porto vs Estoril, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER
13/05/22 – Annan vs Edinburgh, Over 2.5 @ 4/5 (1.80) WINNER
12/05/22 – Real Madrid vs Levante, Over 2.5 @ 17/50 (1.34) WINNER
11/05/22 – Nantes vs Rennes, Over 2.5 @ 4/7 (1.57) WINNER
10/05/22 – Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER
09/05/22 – Helsingborg vs Norrkoping, Over 2.5 @ 9/10 (1.90) LOSER
08/05/22 – Alkmaar vs Ajax, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER
07/05/22 – Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen, Over 2.5 @ 2/5 (1.40) WINNER
06/05/22 – Inter vs Empoli, Over 2.5 @ 13/50 (1.26) WINNER
05/05/22 – Odense vs Sonderjyske, Over 2.5 @ 3/4 (1.75) WINNER
04/05/22 – Real Madrid vs Man City, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) WINNER
03/05/22 – No tip offered due to limited fixtures – VOID
02/05/22 – Chesterfield vs Stockport, Over 2.5 @ 9/10 (1.90) LOSER
01/05/22 – Basel vs Zurich, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER
30/04/22 – Oxford vs Doncaster, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER
29/04/22 – Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep, Over 2.5 @ 11/20 (1.55) WINNER
28/04/22 – Feyenoord vs Marseille, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER
27/04/22 – Rapid Vienna vs Klagenfurt, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER
26/04/22 – Man City vs Real Madrid, Over 2.5 @ 13/20 (1.65) WINNER
25/04/22 – Benevento vs Ternana, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER
24/04/22 – Basel vs Luzern, Over 2.5 goals @ 11/20 (1.55) WINNER
23/04/22 – Leicester vs Aston Villa, Over 2.5 goals @ 77/100 (1.77) LOSER
22/04/22 – Emmen vs Roda, Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (1.70) LOSER
21/04/22 – Levante vs Sevilla, Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (1.85) WINNER
20/04/22 – Angers vs PSG, Over 2.5 goals @ 3/5 (1.60) WINNER
19/04/22 – Liverpool vs Man United, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) WINNER
18/04/22 – Luzern vs St Gallen, Over 2.5 @ 4/7 (1.57) WINNER
17/04/22 – Granada vs Levante, Over 2.5 @ 17/20 (1.85) WINNER
16/04/22 – Tottenham vs Brighton, Over 2.5 @ 4/5 (1.80) LOSER
15/04/22 – Rennes vs Monaco, Over 2.5 @ 4/5 (1.80) WINNER
14/04/22 – Aarhus vs Viborg, Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (2.10) LOSER
13/04/22 – Liverpool vs Benfica, Over 2.5 goals @ 2/5 (1.40) WINNER
12/04/22 – Real Madrid vs Chelsea, Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (1.85) WINNER
11/04/22 – Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor, Over 2.5 goals @ 9/10 (1.90) WINNER
10/04/22 – Leicester vs Crystal Palace @ 9/10 (1.90) WINNER