How to win bets with the over 2.5 goals strategy 

So many people that bet on football default to match result bets be it as a single bet or grouped into an accumulator. With the over 2.5 goals strategy, you might just find more enjoyment and more profit from your bets.

Our over 2.5 goals tip of the day

For our over 2.5 goals strategy, keep reading. If you’re just checking in for our daily over 2.5 goals tip then here you are:

Kaiserslautern vs Dresden, Over 2.5 @ 19/20 (1.95)

Kaiserslautern have gone over the 2.5 mark in each of their last six home games. Dresden have gone north of that marker in four of their last five away games. Three of the last five head to heads have gone over 2.5 too with their last clash seeing seven goals.

Our preferred bookmaker is STSBet; odds were correct at the time of publication.

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What is the over 2.5 goals strategy? 

An over 2.5 goals bet is where you predict a fixture will have three goals or more. You can’t score half a goal after all. 

With these bets, you don’t care what team wins, what players score or even what team scores. It’s all about seeing that net bulge. 

The strategy element comes into play with how you predict what games will involve that many goals. It takes some effort but much less than that of predicting what team will win.

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Not yet ready? Carry on reading…

What research do I need to do?

The most obvious thing to do with the over 2.5 goals strategy is to work out how many goals teams are seeing in their games. How do we do this? Well, there are two ways you can shape this analysis. 

Firstly, take a longer term view. At the moment, the season is in it’s infancy so look to last season. Take the game you’re considering betting on and review the two teams goals for and against columns for last season. If you add those numbers together and divide by the number of games, you’ll get your average goals per game. 

An example – Man United Vs Chelsea

This game takes place today. Last season their statistics are as follows: 

Man United: 

Goals for 66 + goals against 36 = 102 

Divide that by 38 games = 2.7 

Chelsea:  

Goals for 69 + goals against 54 = 123 

Divide that by 38 games = 3.2 

Based on longer term averages, the prospect of over 2.5 goals looks promising. 

What about shorter term? 

Taking a long term view is sensible but you want to look at more recent form too. 

As the season is only a few games in, you can just use the ‘as is’ goals columns. As the season progresses, sites like transfermarkt.co.uk offer flexible tables where you can set what period you wish to look at. This is very useful. In addition to that, you can use sites like Flashscore.co.uk. On Flashscore you can look at specific leagues and view special over/under league tables where the teams can be ranked on their average goals per game; you lose some of the bespoke control transfermarkt offers with regards to controlling time periods but you can see a ‘last five’ where over and under are represented by green (over) or red (under) marks.

An example of the flashscore.co.uk over/under table. The standings are ranked by goals per match (G/M).

So our example continues… 

So far this season, Man United have played four games. They’ve scored nine and conceded 12. That’s an average goals per game of 5.3.

Looks good, doesn’t it? How much of that is down to their 6-1 defeat against Tottenham? If your sample contains ‘freak’ results (data outliers) then strip them out. Now, United have played three games with eight goals for and six against. The good news is, that’s still 4.7 goals per game. 

Chelsea meanwhile have played five matches scoring 13 and conceding nine. That’s 4.4 goals per game. The match itself is a hard one to call as to who wins. The prospect of over 2.5 goals looks good though. 

Are there any other statistics to consider? 

The only other hard statistics to consider in the over 2.5 goals strategy is around head to head information. 

We know Chelsea and Man United have plenty of goals in their games in general terms. What about against each other? Check out their previous fixtures. In the last 10 meetings there have been 26 goals shared with five games being over 2.5 goals. 

What about subjective input?

We’ve been talking in cold hard stats up to now. That’s not the only thing that defines a successful bet though. Sometimes the most important information comes in the shape of your knowledge. In these scenarios you’re predominantly talking about team selections.

Why does that matter? Let’s stick with our example. If Manchester United announce their team and Bruno Fernandes is not in it then they’ve lost something from their attack because he’s had five goal involvements in their four league games so far this season. 

On the flip side, imagine if Chelsea name Kepa in goal. He makes their defence weaker. The evidence for this is that he’s made three errors leading to goals this Premier League season alone. He’s only played three league games.

There you have it, your over 2.5 goals strategy explained. 

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Over 2.5 goals tip history:

19/05/22 – Luzern vs Young Boys, Over 2.5 @ 1/2 (1.50) WINNER

18/05/22 – Helsingor vs Lyngby, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER

17/05/22 – Haka vs SJK, Over 2.5 @ 23/20 (2.15) LOSER

16/05/22 – Silkeborg vs Midtjylland, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER

15/05/22 – Swindon vs Port Vale, Over 2.5 @ 21/20 (2.05) WINNER

14/05/22 – Porto vs Estoril, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER

13/05/22 – Annan vs Edinburgh, Over 2.5 @ 4/5 (1.80) WINNER

12/05/22 – Real Madrid vs Levante, Over 2.5 @ 17/50 (1.34) WINNER

11/05/22 – Nantes vs Rennes, Over 2.5 @ 4/7 (1.57) WINNER

10/05/22 – Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER

09/05/22 – Helsingborg vs Norrkoping, Over 2.5 @ 9/10 (1.90) LOSER

08/05/22 – Alkmaar vs Ajax, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER

07/05/22 – Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen, Over 2.5 @ 2/5 (1.40) WINNER

06/05/22 – Inter vs Empoli, Over 2.5 @ 13/50 (1.26) WINNER

05/05/22 – Odense vs Sonderjyske, Over 2.5 @ 3/4 (1.75) WINNER

04/05/22 – Real Madrid vs Man City, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) WINNER

03/05/22 – No tip offered due to limited fixtures – VOID

02/05/22 – Chesterfield vs Stockport, Over 2.5 @ 9/10 (1.90) LOSER

01/05/22 – Basel vs Zurich, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER

30/04/22 – Oxford vs Doncaster, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) LOSER

29/04/22 – Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep, Over 2.5 @ 11/20 (1.55) WINNER

28/04/22 – Feyenoord vs Marseille, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER

27/04/22 – Rapid Vienna vs Klagenfurt, Over 2.5 @ 31/50 (1.62) WINNER

26/04/22 – Man City vs Real Madrid, Over 2.5 @ 13/20 (1.65) WINNER

25/04/22 – Benevento vs Ternana, Over 2.5 @ 67/100 (1.67) WINNER

24/04/22 – Basel vs Luzern, Over 2.5 goals @ 11/20 (1.55) WINNER

23/04/22 – Leicester vs Aston Villa, Over 2.5 goals @ 77/100 (1.77) LOSER

22/04/22 – Emmen vs Roda, Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (1.70) LOSER

21/04/22 – Levante vs Sevilla, Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (1.85) WINNER

20/04/22 – Angers vs PSG, Over 2.5 goals @ 3/5 (1.60) WINNER

19/04/22 – Liverpool vs Man United, Over 2.5 @ 47/100 (1.47) WINNER

18/04/22 – Luzern vs St Gallen, Over 2.5 @ 4/7 (1.57) WINNER

17/04/22 – Granada vs Levante, Over 2.5 @  17/20 (1.85) WINNER

16/04/22 – Tottenham vs Brighton, Over 2.5 @  4/5 (1.80) LOSER

15/04/22 – Rennes vs Monaco, Over 2.5 @  4/5 (1.80) WINNER

14/04/22 – Aarhus vs Viborg, Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (2.10) LOSER

13/04/22 – Liverpool vs Benfica, Over 2.5 goals @ 2/5 (1.40) WINNER

12/04/22 – Real Madrid vs Chelsea, Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (1.85) WINNER

11/04/22 – Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor, Over 2.5 goals @ 9/10 (1.90) WINNER

10/04/22 – Leicester vs Crystal Palace @ 9/10 (1.90) WINNER

4 thoughts on “How to win bets with the over 2.5 goals strategy

  • May 9, 2022 at 9:28 am
    Permalink

    I don’t understand today’s tip. Can you sort? Thanks

    Reply
    • May 9, 2022 at 7:23 pm
      Permalink

      Hi Nadeem,

      Not surprised, looks like there has been an error on the tip for 09/05 making it difficult to decipher. Apologies for the inconvenience and, hopefully, you’ll be back for some more winning tips in the future.

      Thanks

      Reply
  • May 10, 2022 at 9:31 am
    Permalink

    Even though your real tip for yesterday was a loser, the incorrect tip you gave yesterday, double chance, was a winner lol.

    Thanks

    Reply
    • May 10, 2022 at 12:20 pm
      Permalink

      Indeed – the two articles had been muddled.

      At least there was a winner in there – just (90+3 equaliser). Back on track now though with the tips in the right place and, hopefully, there will be more winners than losers!

      Reply

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